Tuesday, April 23, 2013

1Q2013 California Foreclosures Press Release

Golden State Foreclosure Starts Lowest Since Late 2005


April 23, 2013

The number of California homeowners entering the foreclosure process plunged to the lowest level in more than seven years last quarter. The unusually sharp drop in the number of mortgage default notices filed by lenders stems mainly from rising home values, a strengthening economy and government efforts to reduce foreclosures, a real estate information service reported.

During first-quarter 2013 lenders recorded 18,567 Notices of Default (NoDs) on California houses and condos. That was down 51.4 percent from 38,212 during the prior three months, and down 67.0 percent from 56,258 in first-quarter 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

Last quarter's number was the lowest since 15,337 NoDs were recorded in fourth-quarter 2005. NoDs peaked in first-quarter 2009 at 135,431. DataQuick's NoD statistics go back to 1992.

"Foreclosure starts were already trending much lower late last year because of rising home prices, a stronger labor market and the settlement agreement between the government and some lenders. But it appears last quarter's drop was especially sharp because of a package of new state foreclosure laws - the 'Homeowner Bill of Rights' - that took effect January 1. Default notices fell off a cliff in January, then edged up. In recent years we've seen temporary lulls in foreclosure activity after new laws kick in and lenders adjust. It's certainly possible foreclosure starts will pick up at some point this year if lenders need to play a lot of catch-up," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

"Rising home prices will be key to the final mop-up of the foreclosure mess," he added. "As values rise, fewer people owe more than their homes are worth, and more people can refinance into a more favorable loan. It also means more who fall on hard times can sell their homes for enough to pay off the loan."

The median price paid for a California home last quarter was $297,000, up 22.7 percent from a year ago, DataQuick reported.

NoD filings fell in all home price categories last quarter. But mortgage defaults remained more concentrated in California's most affordable neighborhoods. Zip codes with first-quarter 2013 median sale prices below $200,000 collectively saw 2.9 NoDs filed for every 1,000 homes in those zip codes. The ratio was 1.9 NoDs per 1,000 homes for zip codes with $200,000 to $800,000 medians, while there were 0.7 NoDs filed per 1,000 homes for the group of zips with medians above $800,000.

Most of the loans going into default are still from the 2005-2007 period. The median origination quarter for defaulted loans is still third-quarter 2006. That has been the case for more than three years, indicating that weak underwriting standards peaked then.

On primary mortgages, California homeowners were a median 8.6 months behind on their payments when the lender filed the Notice of Default. The borrowers owed a median $14,380 on a median $310,000 mortgage.

On home equity loans and lines of credit in default, borrowers owed a median $4,971 on a median $68,099 credit line. The amount of the credit line that was actually in use cannot be determined from public records.

The most active "beneficiaries" in the formal foreclosure process last quarter were Wells Fargo (5,546), JP Morgan Chase (3,863) and Bank of America (2,565).

The trustees who pursued the highest number of defaults last quarter were Recontrust Co. (mainly for Bank of America and Bank of New York), Quality Loan Service Corp (Wells Fargo and others) and Trustee Corps (for Green Tree Servicing, JP Morgan Chase and others).

San Diego-based DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Notices of Default are recorded at county recorders offices and mark the first step of the formal foreclosure process.

Although 18,567 default notices were filed last quarter, they involved 18,010 homes because some borrowers were in default on multiple loans (e.g. a primary mortgage and a line of credit).

Among the state's larger counties, loans were least likely to go into default last quarter in San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara and Marin counties, based on an analysis of how many NoDs were filed for every 1,000 homes in existence. The probability was highest in Riverside, San Bernardino, Solano and San Joaquin counties. The analysis excluded counties with fewer than 50,000 homes.

Trustees Deeds recorded (TDs), or the finalized loss of a home to the formal foreclosure process, dropped to a six-year low last quarter. TDs totaled 13,591, down 35.7 percent from 21,127 foreclosures in the prior quarter, and down 55.1 percent from 30,261 foreclosures in first-quarter 2012. Last quarter's foreclosure tally was the lowest for any quarter since first-quarter 2007, when 11,032 homes were foreclosed on. The all-time peak was 79,511 foreclosures in third-quarter 2008. The state's all-time low was 637 in second-quarter 2005, DataQuick reported.

Just as with mortgage default filings, foreclosures remained far more concentrated in the state's most affordable communities. Zip codes with first-quarter 2013 median sale prices below $200,000 collectively saw 2.9 homes foreclosed on for every 1,000 homes in existence. That compares with 1.2 foreclosures per 1,000 homes for zips with medians from $200,000 to $800,000, and 0.3 foreclosures per 1,000 homes in the group of zips with medians over $800,000.

On average, homes foreclosed on last quarter took 8.1 months to wind their way through the formal foreclosure process, beginning with an NoD. That's down from an average of 8.9 months the prior quarter and down from 8.5 months a year earlier.

At formal foreclosure auctions held statewide last quarter, an estimated 47.6 percent of the foreclosed properties were bought by investors or others that don't appear to be lender or government entities. That was up from an estimated 41.7 percent the previous quarter and up from 33.7 percent a year earlier, DataQuick reported.

Foreclosure resales - properties foreclosed on in the prior 12 months - accounted for 17.3 percent of all California resale activity last quarter. That was up slightly from 16.6 percent the prior quarter and down from 33.6 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales peaked at 57.8 percent in first-quarter 2009. Among the state's larger counties last quarter, foreclosure resales varied from 6.9 percent in San Francisco County to 29.9 percent in Tulare County.

Lenders' shift toward short sales as a foreclosure alternative has helped lower foreclosure activity in recent years. Short sales - transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property - made up an estimated 20.2 percent of the state's resale market last quarter. That was down from an estimated 24.2 percent the prior quarter and 24.8 percent a year earlier. However, the estimated number (rather than percentage) of short sales last quarter dipped just 1.5 percent from first-quarter 2012.

For County-by-County NOD and Foreclosure counts, see DQNews.com.

Source: DataQuick; DQNews.com

Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157

Copyright 2013 DataQuick. All rights reserved.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

March California Home Sale Press Release

California March Home Sales


April 18, 2013

An estimated 37,764 new and resale houses and condos sold statewide last month. That was up 31.5 percent from 28,719 in February, and up 0.8 percent from 37,481 sales in March 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

It’s normal for sales to shoot up between February and March. California March sales have varied from a low of 24,565 in 2008 to a high of 68,848 in 2005. Last month's sales were 13.5 percent below the average of 43,648 sales for all the months of March since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin.

The median price paid for a home in California last month was $313,000, up 8.3 percent from $289,000 in February and up 24.7 percent from $251,000 in March 2012. March was the 13th consecutive month in which the state's median sale price rose year-over-year. In March/April/May 2007 the median peaked at $484,000. The post-peak trough was $221,000 in April 2009.

Of the existing homes sold last month, 15.2 percent were properties that had been foreclosed on during the past year – the lowest level since foreclosure resales were 12.6 percent of the resale market in September 2007. Last month’s figure compares with 18.0 percent in February and 32.8 percent a year earlier. Foreclosure resales peaked at 58.8 percent in February 2009.

Short sales - transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property - made up an estimated 21.5 percent of the homes that resold last month. That was down from an estimated 22.4 percent the month before and 24.5 percent a year earlier.

The typical mortgage payment that home buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,134. That was up from $1,042 in January and up from $901 a year earlier. Adjusted for inflation, last month's typical payment was 50.6 percent below the 1989 peak of the prior real estate cycle, and 59.9 percent below the 2006 peak of the current cycle.

DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

Indicators of market distress continue to decline. Foreclosure activity remains well below year-ago and peak levels reached several years ago. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, while down payment sizes are stable, DataQuick reported.

Media calls: Andrew LePage (916)456-7157 or alepage@dqnews.com

Source: DataQuick; DQNews.com

Copyright DataQuick. All rights reserved.

March Bay Area Home Sale Press Release

Bay Area Home Sales Dip Below 2012 Level Again; Median Sale Price Rises


March 18, 2013

La Jolla, CA.--Bay Area home sales fell below a year earlier for the second consecutive month in March as demand continued to outstrip supply in many markets. While low-end sales fell sharply compared with March 2012, $500,000-plus transactions jumped, helping to push the median sale price up on a year-over-year basis for the 12th consecutive month, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 7,263 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 34.4 percent from 5,404 the month before, and down 6.0 percent from 7,723 in March 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

It’s normal for sales to jump between February and March, with that gain averaging 39.5 percent since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. March sales have ranged from a low of 4,898 in 2008 to a high of 12,645 in 2004. Last month's sales were 17.1 percent lower than the March average of 8,758.

The median price paid for a home in the nine-county Bay Area last month was $436,000. That was up 7.7 percent from $405,000 in February and up 21.8 percent from $358,000 in March last year.

The median has risen on a year-over-year basis for 12 consecutive months, with double-digit year-over-year gains the last ten months, and increases above 20 percent for the past five months.

Still, last month's median was 34.4 percent lower than the $665,000 peak in June and July of 2007. In March 2009 the median hit its post-peak low of $290,000. That trough was an almost absurdly low level for the Bay Area, reflecting both widespread price declines as well as robust sales of heavily discounted inland foreclosures at a time high-end sales were all but dormant.

It appears that well over half of the 21.8 percent year-over-year increase in March's median sale price reflects rising home prices. It's Economics 101: Prices go up as growing demand meets an exceptionally low supply of homes for sale. However, a portion of the March median's year-over-year gain reflects a change in market mix – sales of low-cost distress homes have fallen sharply, while sales of pricier move-up homes have shot up.

“Higher sales in the middle and top of the housing market reflect improved consumer confidence, ultra-low mortgage rates and the unleashing of more pent-up demand than many anticipated. There’s been a shift in psychology, where more people worry prices will rise and fewer fear a decline. It’s drawn a lot of folks off the fence following a long stretch of sub-par sales, especially in the higher price ranges. In the more affordable markets, we’ve seen a big drop in foreclosures, which limits the supply of homes for sale. Then you have homeowners who still can't sell because they owe more than their homes are worth,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

“The more prices rise, though, the more likely we'll see a lot more people put their homes on the market,” Walsh added. “There’s pent-up demand among potential sellers, too, and many will try to move as soon as it makes sense. A substantial jump in inventory would at least moderate home price growth.”

Last month the number of homes that sold for less than $500,000 fell 18.9 percent compared with March 2012, while the number that sold for $500,000 or more rose 25.2 percent, DataQuick reported.

Distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short sales” – made up about 30 percent of the resale market in March. Last month’s figure, which was the lowest in five years, was down from about 35 percent in February and down from about 49.0 percent a year ago.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 10.7 percent of Bay Area resales last month, down from 14.0 percent in February, and down from 25.5 percent a year ago. Last month’s level was the lowest since foreclosure resales were 10.1 percent of the resale market in November 2007. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average over the past 18 years is 10.2 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 19.0 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was down from an estimated 20.5 percent in February and down from 23.8 percent a year earlier.

Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 39.7 percent of last month’s purchase lending, up from 37.1 percent in February, and up from 30.7 percent a year ago. Jumbo usage dropped as low as 17.1 percent in January 2009. Before the credit crunch struck in August 2007, jumbos accounted for nearly 60 percent of the Bay Area purchase loan market.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), another indicator of mortgage availability, accounted for 12.7 percent of the Bay Area’s home purchase loans last month. That was up from 11.0 percent in February, and up from 11.6 percent a year ago. Since 2000, ARMs have accounted for a monthly average of about 42 percent of all purchase loans. ARMs hit a low of 3.0 percent of purchase loans in January 2009.

Government-insured FHA home purchase loans, a popular, low-down-payment choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 12.3 percent of home purchase mortgages in March. That was down from 14.6 percent in February and down from 20.9 percent a year earlier. In recent months the FHA level has been the lowest since summer 2008, reflecting both tougher qualifying standards and the difficulties first-time buyers have competing with investors and other cash buyers.

The most active lenders to Bay Area home buyers last month were Wells Fargo with 14.8 percent of the purchase loan market, Stearns Lending with 4.5 percent, and RPM Mortgage with 3.6 percent.

Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 27.3 percent of all Bay Area homes. That was down from 28.7 percent in February, and up from 24.2 percent a year ago. Absentee buyers paid a median $324,000 in March, up 29.6 percent from $250,000 a year earlier.

Buyers who appear to have paid all cash – meaning no sign of a corresponding purchase loan was found in the public record – accounted for 31.1 percent of sales in March. That was down from 32.3 percent the month before and up from 29.4 percent a year earlier. The monthly average going back to 1988 is 12.9 percent. Cash buyers paid a median $325,000 in March, up 30.0 percent from $250,000 a year earlier.

San Diego-based DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated for Alameda and San Francisco counties.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,579. That was up from $1,460 in February, and up from $1,359 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, last month’s payment was 44.1 percent below the typical payment in spring 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 58.7 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.

Indicators of market distress continue to decline. Foreclosure activity is well below year-ago and peak levels reached in the last few years. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, and down payment sizes are stable, DataQuick reported.

To view the county-by-county chart, visit DQNews.com.

Source: DataQuick, www.DQNews.com

Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157
Copyright 2013 DataQuick. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

March Southland Home Sale Press Release

Southland Median Home Sale Price Climbs Again; Sales Rise Slightly Yr/Yr


April 17, 2013

The median price paid for a Southern California home hit a 56-month high in March, rising 23.4 percent from a year earlier as the impact of foreclosures continued to fade and sales of mid- to high-end homes shot up. Total sales were the highest in six years for a March despite a sharp drop in sub-$300,000 deals, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 20,581 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 29.1 percent from 15,945 sales in February, and up 3.1 percent from 19,953 sales in March 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

Sales normally jump between February and March, with that month-to-month gain averaging 36.4 percent since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.

Last month’s sales were the highest for the month of March since 21,856 Southland homes sold in March 2007, but they were still 15.1 percent below the March average of 24,254 sales. The low for March sales was 12,808 in 2008, while the high was 37,030 in March 2004.

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the six-county Southland was $345,500 last month, up 8.0 percent from $320,000 in February and up 23.4 percent from $280,000 in March 2012. Last month's median was the highest since July 2008, when it was $348,000.

The median has risen on a year-over-year basis for 12 consecutive months, and those gains have been double-digit – between 10.8 percent and 23.5 percent – since last August.

“It’s remarkable how much the housing scene has changed in a year. At this point in 2012 there were still plenty of folks sitting on the market’s sidelines, waiting to be sure the recovery was real. But gradually the psychology shifted as the economy picked up steam and mortgage rates fell to historic lows. We’re seeing the release of a lot of pent-up demand, especially in the middle and higher-priced neighborhoods where activity had been sluggish for years,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

“Price measures continue to rise for two simple reasons,” Walsh added. “First, demand for homes has risen at a time when the available supply is unusually low. Prices have had nowhere to go but up in many areas. Second, the gains are especially high right now because of the change in market mix: Sales of lower-cost homes have fallen at the same time activity in the higher price ranges has risen.”

It appears that better than half of last month’s 23.4 percent year-over-year gain in the Southland median sale price reflects rising home prices, with the balance reflecting the change in market mix.

Some of the biggest price gains have come in the lower end of the market, which was hit hardest by foreclosures and price declines during the downturn. In March, the lowest-cost third of Southern California's housing stock saw a 24.6 percent year-over-year increase in the median price paid per square foot for resale houses. The gain from a year earlier was 17.1 percent for the middle third of the market and 14.3 percent for the top third.

Sales continued to surge in move-up markets last month. The number of homes sold in March for between $300,000 and $800,000 – a range that would include many move-up buyers – rose 29.5 percent year-over-year. The number of homes sold for $500,000 or more jumped 40.2 percent from one year earlier, while sales of $800,000-plus homes increased 33.4 percent year-over-year.

Last month, 27.2 percent of all Southland home sales were for $500,000 or more, compared with a revised 24.4 percent in February and 19.6 percent a year earlier.

Sales continued to fall on a year-over-year basis in many lower-cost communities. The number of homes that sold below $200,000 last month declined 33.3 percent year-over-year, while sales below $300,000 dipped 24.5 percent. Sales in many affordable markets have been limited not by a lack of demand, but by a lack of supply. The latter has two main causes: First, a relatively high percentage of owners can’t afford to put their homes up for sell because they owe more than the homes are worth. Second, foreclosures are way down.

Last month foreclosure resales – homes foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 13.9 percent of the Southland resale market. That was down from 16.2 percent the month before and down from 31.5 percent a year earlier. Last month’s figure was the lowest since it was 13.6 percent in September 2007. In the current cycle, foreclosure resales hit a high of 56.7 percent in February 2009.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 21.5 percent of Southland resales last month. That was down from an estimated 22.3 percent the month before and 24.6 percent a year earlier.

The share of investor and cash buying remained near all-time highs.

Absentee buyers – mostly investors and some second-home purchasers – bought 30.6 percent of the Southland homes sold last month. That was down from 32.3 percent in February and up from 28.2 percent a year earlier. The record was 32.4 percent in January, while the monthly average since 2000, when the absentee data begin, is 18.0 percent. Last month’s absentee buyers paid a median $274,000, up 29.2 percent from a year earlier.

The share of homes flipped has trended higher in recent months, though it edged lower last month. In March, 6.1 percent of all Southland homes sold on the open market had previously sold in the prior six months, down from a flipping rate of 6.7 percent in February and up from 4.0 percent a year ago. (The figures exclude homes that were resold after being purchased at public foreclosure auction sales on the courthouse steps.)

Buyers paying with cash accounted for 34.1 percent of last month's home sales, compared with a record 36.9 percent the month before and 32.4 percent a year earlier. Since 1988 the monthly average is 16.0 percent. Cash buyers paid a median $280,750 last month, up 30.6 percent from a year ago.

Credit conditions have shown signs of modest improvement.

Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 23.8 percent of last month’s Southland purchase lending – the highest since September 2007, when jumbos made up 26.9 percent of the market. Last month’s figure was up from 21.1 percent the prior month and 16.4 percent a year earlier. In the months leading up to the credit crunch that struck in August 2007, jumbos accounted for around 40 percent of the home loan market.

With fixed rates on 30-year loans so low, and aversion to risk in the marketplace high, the use of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) remains very low in an historical context. Last month 7.4 percent of Southland home purchase loans were ARMs, up from 5.6 percent the prior month and up from 6.2 percent a year earlier. Last month's figure was the highest since ARMs were 8.5 percent of the purchase loan market in August 2011. Since 2000, a monthly average of about 33 percent of Southland purchase have been ARMs.

The most active lenders to Southern California home buyers last month were Wells Fargo with 8.2 percent of the purchase loan market, imortgage.com with 2.8 percent, and both Prospect Mortgage and Bank of America with 2.4 percent.

Government-insured FHA loans, a popular low-down-payment choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 22.9 percent of all purchase mortgages last month. That was down from 24.6 percent the month before and 30.0 percent a year earlier. In recent months the FHA share has been the lowest since summer 2008. The decline reflects tighter FHA qualifying standards implemented in recent years as well as the difficulties first-time buyers are having competing with investors.

DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

The typical monthly mortgage payment Southland buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,252, up from $1,154 the month before and up from $1,063 a year earlier. Adjusted for inflation, last month’s typical payment was 47.8 percent below the typical payment in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 57.3 percent below the current cycle’s peak in July 2007.

Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains well below year-ago and far below peak levels. Financing with multiple mortgages is very low, and down payment sizes are stable, DataQuick reported.

To view the county-by-county chart, visit DQNews.com.

Source: DQNews.com Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157

Copyright 2013 DataQuick. All rights reserved.